Friday, April 20, 2012

Week Ending April 20 2013

Have you had fun this week?

All the talk of above expectation results, collapsing Spanish Bond sales (turning out quite positive) woes of hard landings in China, and not forgetting a mild winter and early spring creating havoc to results. All this talk is, from the respect of the investor, BULLS##T.

The stock market over the long term will "not longer remember waht we said here." It will fade into history as being a mere typical week for the stock market, with little to allow us to discriminate it from most other weeks.

Truth be told the stock market is a mere gambling house. We buy and sell stocks for their own value. The stock is a representation of a portion of a company, but in the market the stock has little to do with the underlying company. A stock is an instrument unto itself.

Take for instance Apple Inc. (AAPL) A couple of weeks ago it was tradiung high on the hog. Then the stock fell for several days. Now it seems to be entering a phase of running at $580-$620 ahead of results.

Did Apple Inc. suddenly lose billions of dollars in market capiutalization because it is a bad company? No.

Did Apple Inc. (AAPL) find itself at the whim of traders moving the market using dump and buy strategies. Possibly.

This case points out there is little correlation between a companies real status and its stock. True a good company will have a better chance of being  highly valued but in the end. The stock market is not about the company, the stock market is about the stock.

The sentiment of buyers, whether they be trraders or investors makes the stock price. If the seller sells into a market which wants to gobble up stock as fast as it can, prices rise. If a seller sells into a market which looks to holding  back prices fall.

Also don't forget the human element. You are dealing with people. They hear and spread gossip. Things look bad or great at the tip of a hat. Prices rise or fall because of the herd or speculators, traders and investors making up their minds with limited information.

See the stock market for what it is. A place to sell instruments in companies, a place of long and short term speculation. Ignore most of the crap about Eurozone and Chinese hard landings, chip shortagers or the sun shining when it should be snowing. Who cares in the long term it doesn't matter.

Assess your chosen stock against its undelying company but remember that you are joining a fluid human driven market. If stocks truly reflected the value of the underlying company we would not see 2% fluctuations from one day to the next. The markets would be almost glacial in their speed of movement.

The stock itself is the purpose of the stock market, not the company, nation, or continent. Stick to the facts and follow the stock. 

No comments:

Post a Comment